The United States is currently experiencing the third strongest summertime El Ni帽o since 1950, and it could strengthen.

鈥淏asically since mid-May things have coalesced into a very strong El Ni帽o and I would say we are on the verge of calling it a super El Ni帽o. That may take a few months to be certain, but that鈥檚 where it鈥檚 drifting,鈥� said University of Colorado-Boulder researcher .

鈥淐ertainly this is the biggest event since 1997/1998 which was the last super El Ni帽o.鈥�

What Makes An El Ni帽o 鈥楽uper鈥�?

Researchers use complex modeling including to predict large climate events like - all while keeping an eye on the past. According to Wolter, a big indicator is temperature. If sea surface temperatures keep going up in the tropical Pacific, so does the likelihood of a super El Ni帽o.

鈥淏ack in 1997/1998 and in 1982/1983 - the last two super El Ni帽os since 1950 - those two events ended up flirting with a plus 3 degree Celsius temperature anomaly in the central eastern tropical Pacific,鈥� he said.

鈥淲e are about half way there 鈥� we are running around 1.5 degrees Celsius for the temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. That is huge for this time of the year [July], but it鈥檚 not quite the required threshold for it to be called a super El Ni帽o. It has to hang together for the next 4 to 6 months to reach that status,鈥� Wolter said.

Animated map of currents and sea surface temperatures courtesy of .

What Does A Super El Ni帽o Mean For Colorado?

Between the typical monsoon season, from July to September, along with the strong El Ni帽o, Colorado will see a wet fall. That might test some , but in drier parts of the West it will be welcome.

鈥淚t makes a much bigger difference for California,鈥� Wolter said. 鈥淭hey have a much better shot at recovering from the drought this winter with a super El Ni帽o situation than with a weak to moderate one.鈥�

According to past events, Wolter said the hallmark of an El Ni帽o and a monsoon is the landfalling hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, most commonly in September, which equates to heavy downpours on the western slope.

With more rain, comes the possibility of more floods.

鈥淭he one drawback of this is that historically, if you look at big floods in Colorado they occur more than twice as often with an El Ni帽o summer, like this year,鈥� Wolter said.

The last super El Ni帽o in 1997 caused , and resulted in five deaths and an estimated $200 million in damages.

How Will A Super El Ni帽o Affect Colorado鈥檚 Snowpack?

If the El Ni帽o continues into the winter, it will affect the frequency of storms, said Wolter.

鈥淵ou actually might get some fairly big snowstorms pretty early in the season, which can set the base. If you don鈥檛 get that, if you don鈥檛 have a string of storms in Oct. or even Nov. going into the winter, then the chance of recovering [the snowpack] during the winter is minimal.鈥�

But if the El Ni帽o holds together into spring 2016, the snowpack could recover.

鈥淭he super El Ni帽o in 1983 went right into the summer. That鈥檚 really the best case scenario. If you get a reasonably wet fall, put some good snow down early in the season, make it through the winter on a shoestring if you will, then get that wet spring, that can more than make up for a dry winter,鈥� Wolter said.

That situation would benefit both the ski industry and the parched southwest, including , which relies on the Colorado River basin for water.

Colorado has seen false starts in El Ni帽o-related weather before. During the spring of 2014, weather patterns and conditions seemed to point to a strong event, but the did not progress over the summer.

But this 2015 El Ni帽o is different.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no way it鈥檚 going to disappear any time soon,鈥� Wolter said. 鈥淭he question is will it last well into the spring, or is it going to die early next year. But it will be around for the next 6 months, there鈥檚 no question about that.鈥�

By October, Wolter will know for sure.

鈥淩ight now I鈥檓 thinking it鈥檚 a 70 to 80 percent chance of a super El Ni帽o.鈥�